Why the Start of 2026 is Poised to be a Seller’s Market

2 weeks ago•By Chris Watson

For vendors considering selling their property, market forecasts suggest the beginning of 2026 will offer a prime window of opportunity. Analysts anticipate a period of strong momentum driven by favorable economic shifts and significant government policy changes, which collectively create an environment of heightened demand and strong price growth. The Strongest Momentum is Forecast for the First Half

Real estate experts predict that the property market will experience a notable acceleration in the first half of 2026, before growth moderates later in the year. This period, riding the crest of several key market drivers, is expected to see stronger price growth and a notable increase in buyer competition—ideal conditions for a seller. Key Drivers for a 2026 Seller’s Market

Expanded First-Home Buyer Demand
The single most influential demand driver is expected to be the federal government’s expanded First Home Guarantee Scheme. With lower interest rates beginning to fully flow through, this policy is poised to trigger a significant rush of first-home buyers into the market by removing barriers like high deposit requirements and Lenders Mortgage Insurance (LMI). This wave of new, motivated buyers injects new energy and competition, especially in the affordable and unit segments, which often set the base price for the wider market.
Favorable Economic Tailwinds
The market is expected to benefit from a continued flow-through of interest rate cuts made by the Reserve Bank, leading to improved borrowing conditions and buyer confidence. Coupled with a steady recovery in real household incomes, more buyers will have the capacity to compete for properties.
Persistent Supply Shortage
While new housing supply is expected to pick up toward the end of 2026, the market will still face persistently tight housing supply and low listings volumes through the first half of the year. This imbalance—high demand against low stock—is the classic recipe for price pressure, giving vendors leverage in negotiations.
Record Price Peaks
Property prices are forecast to reach new record highs across all capital cities by the end of 2026. For a vendor, entering the market early in the year means capitalizing on the initial surge in growth that is building toward these predicted peaks.

Market Outlook by City (House Price Growth Forecast for 2026)

While the national outlook is strong, the specific dynamics vary by city:

City	House Price Forecast	Unit Price Outlook	Vendor Advantage
Sydney	Strongest growth is anticipated (up to 7%), pushing the median towards $1.92 million.	Unit prices are also forecast to rise.	Highest capital gains potential for luxury and prestige homes.
Melbourne	Expected to stage a strong recovery, with the median house price forecast to reach around $1.17 million.	A strong recovery is expected as prices move past pre-pandemic highs.	Market recovery and strong price momentum for houses.
Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth	House price growth is expected to moderate to around 4% to 5%.	Units are forecast to outperform houses as buyers seek affordability.	Strong demand in the affordable sector (units) driven by first-home buyers and investors.

Vendor’s Conclusion: The Optimal Timing

The start of 2026 represents the convergence of pent-up demand from first-home buyers, the full impact of rate relief, and ongoing supply constraints. As a vendor, launching your sale during this high-momentum window allows you to capitalize on the strongest buyer competition and price acceleration before the market potentially cools as new supply enters and affordability constraints set in later in the year.

Why the Start of 2026 is Poised to be a Seller’s Market

Expanded First-Home Buyer Demand
The single most influential demand driver is expected to be the federal government’s expanded First Home Guarantee Scheme. With lower interest rates beginning to fully flow through, this policy is poised to trigger a significant rush of first-home buyers into the market by removing barriers like high deposit requirements and Lenders Mortgage Insurance (LMI). This wave of new, motivated buyers injects new energy and competition, especially in the affordable and unit segments, which often set the base price for the wider market.
Favorable Economic Tailwinds
The market is expected to benefit from a continued flow-through of interest rate cuts made by the Reserve Bank, leading to improved borrowing conditions and buyer confidence. Coupled with a steady recovery in real household incomes, more buyers will have the capacity to compete for properties.
Persistent Supply Shortage
While new housing supply is expected to pick up toward the end of 2026, the market will still face persistently tight housing supply and low listings volumes through the first half of the year. This imbalance—high demand against low stock—is the classic recipe for price pressure, giving vendors leverage in negotiations.
Record Price Peaks
Property prices are forecast to reach new record highs across all capital cities by the end of 2026. For a vendor, entering the market early in the year means capitalizing on the initial surge in growth that is building toward these predicted peaks.

Market Outlook by City (House Price Growth Forecast for 2026)

While the national outlook is strong, the specific dynamics vary by city:

City	House Price Forecast	Unit Price Outlook	Vendor Advantage
Sydney	Strongest growth is anticipated (up to 7%), pushing the median towards $1.92 million.	Unit prices are also forecast to rise.	Highest capital gains potential for luxury and prestige homes.
Melbourne	Expected to stage a strong recovery, with the median house price forecast to reach around $1.17 million.	A strong recovery is expected as prices move past pre-pandemic highs.	Market recovery and strong price momentum for houses.
Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth	House price growth is expected to moderate to around 4% to 5%.	Units are forecast to outperform houses as buyers seek affordability.	Strong demand in the affordable sector (units) driven by first-home buyers and investors.

Vendor’s Conclusion: The Optimal Timing

For additional reading on 2026 forecasts, you can review this article:

Australian Home Prices 2026: New Records Forecast Across Capital Cities

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